The president of the Official College of Social Graduates of the Region of Murcia, José Ruiz, has warned the possible coalition government of PSOE and Podemos that some measures such as raising income tax brackets.
In statements to Europa Press and when asked about the effects of the possible coalition government, Ruiz has warned about the promise of the purple formation to raise the minimum interprofessional salary to 1,100 euros next year, which represents an increase of 200 euros with respect to the current
It is, he adds, a measure that can push back employment. "Movements are already beginning to be felt in that hiring is going to be quite restricted, because this measure supposes an incidence for the 200 euros and the cost of Social Security that is associated with it," according to Ruiz.
Regarding the effect of this measure, he has indicated that most of the collective agreements are up to date, except for the hotel industry and commerce that have been "stuck for many years", despite the fact that they are "very important" sectors for the Region. Most of the professional categories of these groups would be affected by this increase in the minimum wage, which will cause an increase in costs.
Specifically, in the field of hospitality, this measure could affect some 50,000 workers in the Region, according to Ruiz, who believes that some 20,000 trade workers may also be affected, as the unions foresee. "This is going to affect hiring a lot," according to the president of the Social Graduates.
Hospitality and commerce are the two sectors that may suffer the most from the consequences of hiring
Likewise, it has warned about the updating of personal income tax and has shown itself prudent until it is definitively known from which tranche more contributions will begin to be made. "It is heard that there may be a significant rise from 30,000 euros and up to 70,000 euros, which is going to harm the middle class a lot and is going to impoverish us much more," he confirms.
"Workers will have less money in their pockets to be able to spend," adds Ruiz, who explains that the tax increase restricts spending and, consequently, consumption.
When asked about a possible economic crisis, he acknowledged that there is a "slowdown" on the world, European and Spanish scene. "We have a very serious problem in Spain, and that is that the State's borrowing capacity is already at 1.2% of GDP," according to Ruiz, who laments that "we do not have more borrowing capacity."
“If we want to carry out these progressive policies, that means more money and more taxes,” according to Ruiz, who warns that this will imply “more restrictions on consumption”, so Spain “is going to be in a difficult situation if we are not able to control the accounts. In addition, he has shown that he is convinced that the EU is not going to allow more debt.
In the event of this new crisis, Ruiz points out that the Region has a positive factor such as the internationalization of its companies, because exports have increased a lot since the 2007 crisis.
"If we want to carry out these progressive policies, that means more money and more taxes, and more restrictions on consumption"
Regarding employment, he explains that in the Region "temporary contracts continue to be made." However, it warns that precariousness in the private sector is around 27%, and is higher in public administrations as a result of temporary contracts (non-permanent permanent contracts).
"The Region is not doing badly", according to Ruiz, who believes that the Community still retains enough dynamism so that employment does not fall much in 2020. All this, based on the consultations made by social graduates to companies. "Everyone says that they will continue to maintain, more or less, employment levels, despite the fact that it will drop a bit, approximately 10%," he stated.
Among the triggers for this fall, he cites the effect of Brexit, the effect of the fall of the Thomas Cook tour operator or the mild recession worldwide. Faced with this, he believes that the regional government should bet on the "promotion of our products and our tourism at a national and international level."
Another factor that can "destabilize," according to Ruiz, is the "instability" of the new government, because capital "is very cowardly." Specifically, it warns about the consequences of a new government announcing a rise in the minimum wage, pensions or eliminating the labor reform of 2012, "which gave a game in terms of the negotiation of collective agreements, for example."
Instead of eliminating this reform, Ruiz is committed to adapting the legislative framework that regulates labor relations, that is, the workers' statute, which dates from 1980 and is "obsolete" because "it did not contemplate, for example, the new technologies or teleworking”.
The appropriate thing, in his opinion, would be to leave the labor reform and "that all social and economic agents give us a voice so that the reform of the statute contemplates the current reality."
"The logical thing is that, if I do not have these tools, I should be very cautious when hiring workers," according to Ruiz, who explains that all this "insecurity" can cause hiring "not to keep up with the same pace as in previous years ».
The situation of the Mar Menor
To all this is added the situation of the restructuring of Campo de Cartagena, where there is already talk of the loss of several thousand jobs. Likewise, it foresees that the tourist campaign will not be "too good" due to the effects of DANA in the Mar Menor and, above all, the bankruptcy of Thomas Cook.
And it is that this operator attracted a lot of tourism to neighboring communities, such as Valencia, which is now making important promotions to attract lost travelers. "They can offer very large packages due to the hotel infrastructure they have, but the Region of Murcia cannot do that," he lamented.
As for the Mar Menor, Ruiz has pointed out that most of the tourism in that environment is for second homes, and not so much for hotels. "The few hotels that exist may have some decline, but not excessively serious so as not to continue hiring workers," added Ruiz.
future bets
Regarding employment, Ruiz has stressed the need to influence the training of workers, new tools and computer applications such as process automation or Big Data; At the same time, vocational training must be continuous throughout the working life, for which it is necessary to previously study the needs of the companies.
"You have to bet very strongly on Dual Vocational Training because we are in the era of new technologies and industry 4.0, which is going to cause the disappearance of many traditional jobs and the emergence of many new ones," according to Ruiz, who has warned that in the next 10 years some 9 million workers will retire and must be replaced, which represents a "challenge".
Regarding aid from the regional government, it has considered it necessary to have a broad knowledge of the needs of the labor market and potential only those activities that provide added value. Likewise, it is committed to providing workers with a certification that accredits them as bearers of the necessary skills for a position.
Likewise, it is committed to providing security in the legislative framework, strengthening infrastructures and connecting them with the great economic axes of the Region, administrative simplification and commitment to internationalization.
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